CIX FOUNDATIONS · LESSON 04 OF 04
Research with a Record.
Write a thesis, test the counterargument and keep a dated record of what changed.
Make the thesis specific
Write one clear claim, the market or project it concerns, and the timeframe in which you intend to review it. ‘I like this project’ is a preference. A useful thesis explains the mechanism you think matters and the evidence supporting it.
Separate established facts, assumptions and unanswered questions. A roadmap describes intentions. A live product, published usage data or a completed transaction may provide evidence about delivery, but each still needs context.
Go back to the source
Use original documentation, announcements, filings or on-chain records where they are relevant. Record the date and source link. A project's own material helps establish what it claims; it is not independent proof that the claim is complete or unbiased.
Check token supply, distribution, incentives and the practical role of the token where those are part of your thesis. Price, project quality and token value capture are different questions. Do not assume success in one guarantees the others.
Write the strongest counterargument
What would a thoughtful person who disagrees with you point to? Consider dependencies, competition, liquidity, concentration and evidence of weak execution. Look for material that could disprove your preferred view.
Define a review trigger. It might be a scheduled update, a failed assumption or new information. Changing your mind after better evidence is part of research. Keep the old note and append the update so the decision remains traceable.
Your task: one page, seven fields
- Asset or project, source date and review date.
- The thesis in one sentence.
- Three supporting observations with original links.
- The assumptions that connect those observations to the thesis.
- The strongest counterargument.
- What would invalidate the view or trigger a review.
- A dated follow-up: what changed, and what did not.
Use the original calls on this website as material to examine, including the dates and the historical context. Selected historical outcomes are not a complete performance audit or a promise of future results.
Keep the habit
You have now worked through custody, risk, chart reading and a research process. Revisit the exercises when you encounter a new market or a claim that sounds convincing. The aim is a decision you can explain and review.
This four-part course ends here. The lessons and two PDFs remain free on the website. If you want to compare reasoning with other readers, the CIX community is an optional next step.
Sources and context
Original CIX teaching exercises. Educational information, not personal investment advice. Examples are hypothetical; investing and trading can result in losses. Refer to the rules of the specific product and venue.